In 2017, then Prime Minister Theresa May called a snap General Election, in spite of the fact that in the year she'd been in Downing Street she had repeatedly insisted she wouldn't. She claimed that the reason was because she felt that she'd be more able to negotiate a good Brexit deal with the EU with a bigger Parliamentary majority - but it's generally agreed that the real reason for her decision is that she was miles ahead in the polls at the time. The UK media had given her a ten-month-long honeymoon period, the Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn was generally seen as being unelectable and having just triggered Article 50, she was expecting to absorb all the people who'd voted UKIP in the 2015 election.
I remember very clearly the day I learned of the 2017 General Election, and I almost had a full-blown panic attack. Everyone was saying that the Tories were primed for an absolute super-majority, and I believed them. I believed that Theresa May would be in power for a very long time, that Jeremy Corbyn would be removed from the Labour Party and we'd lose any hope of ever going forward. But it didn't work, for two reasons: 1) Jeremy Corbyn did a much better campaign than anyone was expecting, and 2) Theresa May proved herself to be robotic, dull and quite embarrassing to watch. In the end, although the Conservatives were still the largest party, they lost seats whilst Labour gained them and this was generally considered to be the Waterloo for Theresa May. (Of course, in 2019, my fears about 2017 did come true, albeit with Boris Johnson rather than Theresa May - this was the worst day of my life.)
One of the things that always strikes me about 2017 is how quickly Theresa May managed to dive-bomb in popularity. At the beginning of the campaign, the belief that the British public would adore her was to such an extent that their campaign materials had 'Theresa's Team' written on them instead of 'Conservative Party'. Her rhetoric was all about her as an individual rather than about the party - the phrases 'If I win/lose seats' and 'We need to strengthen my hand' were heard constantly. But within a few short weeks, suddenly she was a public laughing stock, and even staunch Tories were talking about how unrelatable she came across. Having spent several years perfecting her image as a professional and reliable head-teacherly-like figure, when she had the spotlight on her it became apparent that she was hideously out of her depth.
The reason I'm talking about this now is that when I watch Keir Starmer campaigning for Labour, I can't help but get déja vu. Like May, he's cultivated his career more about looking like a safe pair of hands than what he actually stands for. His appearance is designed to look authoritative, but not in a way that's too scary. But it's more than that. Much of Theresa May's rhetoric is now being repeated by Keir Starmer almost verbatim. On the 'missions' section of the Labour Party website, the first subheading is 'Strong, stable and secure foundations'. In 2017, one of Theresa May's greatest embarrassments was the constant repetition of the phrase 'Strong and stable' whenever she was asked a difficult question. This isn't the only time Starmer has repeated May's own phrases - a few months ago, Starmer told local councils that there was 'no magic money tree', again echoing May's words in 2017. This is not only repetitive, but it is also nonsense - as we saw in 2017, Theresa May managed to find £1bn within a single day to bribe the DUP into supporting her in Parliament, and I have no doubt that Keir Starmer would do exactly the same if he was in that position. The proverbial magic money tree exists, and politicians shake it constantly whenever it benefits their own careers.
Earlier this week, Keir Starmer came to my hometown of Abergavenny. Whilst he was here, a group of Palestine campaigners confronted him about his lack of enthusiasm for an immediate ceasefire. Keir Starmer ignored them and wouldn't stop to talk - his priority was purely to talk to Labour groups who already supported him. This is much the same as what Theresa May did - May even went as far as arriving by helicopter to remove the remotest possibility that she may be confronted by anyone who didn't support her. May also attracted controversy by refusing to debate Jeremy Corbyn on television, instead sending various colleagues to represent her. Starmer isn't going quite as far as that, but this excellent video explains how he's refusing to debate anyone but Rishi Sunak, meaning the smaller parties are likely to be locked out of TV debates. This is effectively the same thing as when Theresa May refused to debate Jeremy Corbyn - Jeremy Corbyn would have given her a tough ride and proven himself to be a more effective orator, whereas Rishi Sunak is not going to fundamentally challenge Keir Starmer's mission statement because they both essentially believe in free-market capitalism. Like May, Starmer is refusing to debate anyone that he's worried might say something he can't easily come back from.
There's a reason why Starmer and May are so similar to each other. It's because neither of them are particularly interesting politicians, they are both extremely weak at thinking on their feet and the entirety of the mainstream media is behind their campaigns. Behind the scenes, each of them has had conversations with their senior advisors where they've been told, 'This election is yours to lose, you'll be promoted as the safe pair of hands, so in the meantime just stick to the people who already like you and don't do anything embarrassing.' If you try to say anything interesting in an election campaign, you run the risk of being called out by someone - so the solution is to do nothing of note whatsoever and wait for the other side to screw up.
But, as similar as Starmer and May are to each other, there is one major difference. Theresa May was a sitting Prime Minister campaigning against a Leader of the Opposition who had a great amount of empathy, and was capable of relating to ordinary people on their level. Keir Starmer is a Leader of the Opposition campaigning against a sitting Prime Minister who has been abjectly awful and expects to lose. Theresa May had someone giving her a decent fight, and made it easy for them. Keir Starmer has no one like that, and therefore has an advantage that Theresa May didn't have. For that reason, I really have no idea how this is going to turn out for Keir Starmer and Labour - I don't believe that their success in this election is guaranteed at all, but on this occasion that also raises the question: 'If it's not them, then who?'
At this election, unless you happen to have an unusually good Labour MP like Zarah Sultana, I urge all voters to veer away from the major parties. Neither of them will offer anything in the way of positive change. My partner Owen Lewis is standing in the Monmouthshire constituency as an independent candidate, and most of my campaigning will be for him to win this seat. Ideally go for an independent, but if you don't have a good independent standing, a good idea is to go for the Green Party, or Plaid Cymru if you're in Wales or the SNP if you're in Scotland. Remember - in 2017 Theresa May did a deal with the DUP when she lost her majority. The only way to get decent change is to control the options Keir Starmer may have to do a deal with.
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