As usual for an election year, the media pundits are out in full force, predicting the outcome of this election.
I've truthfully decided that pundits tend not to know what they're talking about, and with good reason. In 2015, they predicted a Labour majority - we got a Tory majority. In 2016, they predicted that Remain would win the EU referendum - we got Brexit. In 2017, they predicted a super-majority for Theresa May - we got a hung parliament. And they all seemed very unsure what would happen in 2019!
This to me says that it's very difficult, no matter how much understanding you have about political trends, to predict an election outcome. I don't know what's going to happen at this year's election. I could hazard a guess, but I'm not going to because it would most likely turn out to be wrong. The one thing I can accurately predict is that I'll spend most of the general election campaign in a state of heightened anxiety - let's hope my lovely therapist can help with that. Generally, I'm content with the fact that I don't know.
But more importantly, I think that this year will be even harder to predict the outcome of than elections normally are. The reason for this is due to COVID, and the lockdown events we experienced in 2020. At the time of lockdown, I had only recently entered a new relationship; my relationship was largely on the rocks, and truthfully I think we'd have split up if we hadn't gone into lockdown together. But going into lockdown together largely made us grow closer again, and we certainly did a lot of really productive things, such as my partner finishing his first novel. We're still together, and stronger than ever!
I myself had a particularly positive experience with COVID. I recognise that I'm very fortunate in that, and that many other people had a far harder time than I did. However, I think it's important to note that all of us, whether we had a nice time in 2020 or whether we didn't, fundamentally changed as people during that time. And I think in most cases, there's an argument that we changed for the better.
Here are the three things that I think are most different about the average person since COVID to how they were before:
1. They are more creative
Creativity is humanity's greatest strength. It's the one thing that makes us unique as a species - I've never seen any evidence that other species have learned to make up stories, play music, paint pictures or any of the other forms of creativity that exists within human culture (although please send me any studies if there are any!)
It's commonly complained that the arts is the domain of the rich, and as someone who works in the arts myself I can confirm that there's a lot of truth in that - the rich and famous dominate, and ordinary people struggle to get a look in. But I like to look at it the opposite way as well. Doesn't it say something about the human condition that so many people, if they do happen to have a lot of wealth and not have to worry about getting by, find themselves naturally turning to art?
Lockdown was a time when so many people realised skills that they never knew before that they possessed. Whether it's baking, sewing, learning how to play a musical instrument, writing stories (which is what happened to my partner), it was a rare moment where we had a bit of time for ourselves, to find things that we enjoyed to get us through each day. And many of us have managed to keep that up.
I think this is a positive because it means that we can demand a better quality of life. Going back to menial jobs after lockdown was far more of a chore than it had been before, because we'd had more time to think about what we'd rather have been doing instead. I think that knowing that, and having realised our creativity in a way that we previously might not have done, is a very beneficial thing for humanity.
2. They are kinder
So many people had an utterly horrible time during lockdown, either because they were disabled, lonely, mentally ill or just otherwise unable to look after themselves. And naturally, our leaders did the bare minimum they could get away with.
I need to make clear, so as not to look like I"m excusing it, that the attitude of our politicians during this time period was absolutely scandalous. But sometimes it's in dark times that we really see the light, and I was so heartened to see how much care and compassion for one another lockdown brought out, whether it was doing the shopping for an elderly neighbour, or giving a phone call to check in with someone who was stuck living with an abusive partner, to even taking someone into your home (the latter happened to me - my partner's parents were kind enough to allow me to stay with them for the entire lockdown period, even though they didn't know me that well at that point. I'll never forget that.)
I really hope that this kindness has stuck since lockdown. The biggest barrier to kindness is personal stress and anxiety, so naturally with the increasing numbers of problems within society there have been some instances where that compassion has diminished... but I also see so many people standing up for those less fortunate in ways that a few years ago I just didn't. I personally am seeing this most strongly in the ongoing campaign for the rights of vulnerable adults in Monmouthshire and Abergavenny, which I'm involved with and which I have written about on previous blogs.
3. They are more angry
Last week, I went to see a poet perform. During the performance, the poet said that the enduring memory of the last few years that has really stuck with him is Queen Elizabeth II, sitting alone at her husband's funeral, knowing that her Government had been partying the night before. I'm not normally very interested in the Royal Family, particularly when there are so many people who are suffering a lot more than them - but the poet did make the interesting point that this is the ultimate reflection of the amount of contempt that politicians have for people. If they can treat our monarch with that little respect, what on earth does that say about their feelings for regular folk? I thought this was very well-expressed.
At the start of lockdown, I remember there was a real spirit of 'taking one for the team'. It's in some of the worst times that communities do pull together. I'm always inspired by stories of life during World War II for those who were not actively fighting, the people who continued to keep their communities alive when so many had had to leave their normal jobs and go to war - indeed, I'm the grandson of a Land Girl, and my grandmother's commitment to the Women's Land Army is one of the things that most inspires me to continue to try to make a difference in this troubling world.
But then Dominic Cummings drove to Barnard Castle, and the glue snapped. It was absolutely inconceivable to people, including myself, that the rich and powerful just weren't taking this seriously, especially when politicians started falling over themselves to defend him. People had had to miss their loved ones' funerals, keep their children out of education, put themselves to extraordinary levels of inconvenience in the interests of us all being together, and then it was demonstrated beyond all doubt that those with the most power had been laughing at them for doing that.
This created an almost universal sense of anger with politicians that I don't think has ever been forgotten about. And it's something that I don't think has disappeared. There was a time when politicians were given the benefit of the doubt, and that has just gone.
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As I said at the start, I don't want to speculate about what impact these changes to our values in life will have on the upcoming election. Ideally, I would love them to manifest themselves in things like support for independent local candidates like Andrew Feinstein at the expense of career politicians like Keir Starmer. I don't believe that either the Labour or Conservative Parties deserve to win this election, and I think we're in quite an interesting position to really make quite a radical change to politics. Or maybe the opposite will happen - maybe the collective anger will result in fewer people even bothering to turn out to vote, on the idea that 'What's even the point? They're all the same anyway.' I wouldn't like that to happen, but it could happen. There's also the fact that it's also an election year in the USA - I haven't written about that at all because I don't have enough of a detailed understanding of the American political system or COVID's effect on US culture generally (although of course, they already have had one election since lockdown and we haven't. Still interesting though.)
One thing is for sure though. This is the first UK General Election post-lockdown, and that will have an effect. We may not be able to say what that effect will be, but I do believe there will be one that in the future we'll be able to look back on and attribute it to our experiences in lockdown. I also think this simple fact has been completely forgotten about by virtually all media sources, whatever their political persuasion. And it's for that reason that I'd caution everyone to be extremely sceptical of any election predictions, no matter who it's by. Election results are hard enough to call at the best of times, but when there's been a huge event since the last one that has fundamentally changed us as human beings, it's pretty near impossible. Anything could happen - and that's something I find frightening, but also inspiring and exciting.
(By the way, I have a Substack now, but I haven't quite worked out how to use it! Watch this space.)
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